Congress is deeply dysfunctional. President Obama’s agenda is being disrupted and the authority and reputation of the United States are being undermined. All of this is deeply damaging to the economy and being pursued for the narrow electoral advantage of one party. I am speaking, of course, of the Democrats.
Recent presidents have generally been granted by Congress “Trade Promotion Authority”, generally called “Fast Track Authority”. This means the administration can negotiate complex deals, often involving multiple other parties, and then present them to Congress for up or down votes. If Congress can amend these agreements then the administration cannot negotiate in good faith and other countries won’t agree to the deals. Fast Track Authority was granted to George W Bush in 2002 and expired in 2007. By that time, Democrats were in control of Congress and the president’s political capital was spent. It should have been renewed in 2009, when the new president had big majorities on Capitol Hill. The president did not push it at that time, but is now pressing hard. The administration has been negotiating with Pacific Rim countries and would like to push through the Trans-Pacific Partnership. A deal with the 28 member European Union could follow.
This ought to be easy. Republicans – who are generally (though by no means consistently) in favor of international trade – control the House and the president’s own party controls the Senate. But nothing reaches a vote in the Senate without the consent of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and he is concerned about the upcoming mid-term elections. Democrats in rustbelt states fear that freer trade – even if it is in the wider long-term interests of the US – could be against the electoral interests of Democratic candidates. It is likely that, in the short term, industrial states lose jobs because of these deals.
But free trade – despite the short-term disruption, will massively benefit the global economy, especially in the United States. It boosts the economy and advances the cause of global peace. If a vote on Fast Track Authority was put in the Senate, it would probably pass. Most Republicans and many Democrats would support it. But Reid will not allow the vote.
This puts the White House in a rather strange position. In this columnist’s view, these trade deals could be the most radical and transformative legacy of this administration. (President Obama probably does not share that view, and has generally been less keen on free trade either Bill Clinton or defeated Democratic candidates, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry). But, reluctant free-trader or not, the president is now pressing for this agenda: and his most important ally in Congress is blocking it.
Perhaps Reid is only holding out for the November elections. Perhaps, if Democrats hold the Senate, he will allow a vote next year. If this turns out to be so, then deals could be in place before the president’s term expires. But there are new Senate elections in 2018, so possibly not.
The situation is bizarre: the president’s best chance for his most important second term agenda could actually be if his party loses the mid-term elections. A Republican-controlled Congress would probably give him the Fast Track Authority he desperately wants. It is by no means clear that a Democratic Senate will even allow the vote.
Quentin Langley is a Senior Lecturer in Marketing at the University of Bedfordshire Business School as well as a freelance columnist published in the UK and all parts of the US. He blogs on social media and crisis communications at brandjacknews.com
Filed under: U.S. Politics
